Breakouts that meet our standard.

4H breakouts (long)

Every bullish 4H breakout found by the ClearBreaks detectors is scored on seven boxes. Only breakouts that tick at least 6 are listed; 7 out of 7 is marked “All 7”.

1. BTC above its 4H 200-EMA
2. BTC up over 7 days
3. Level tested: 12+ of the last 20 highs within 0.5 ATR
4. Uptrend into the level (100 candles)
5. Break volume under 4x the 20-candle average
6. Break candle range under 3 ATR
7. Weekday break (UTC)

Plan as studied: enter at the open of the next 4H candle, stop at the level minus one ATR (14-candle average true range), target +2R from the actual entry, otherwise exit at the close of the 30th 4H candle. The stop is fixed: there is no trailing stop.

Track record in our study: breakouts scoring 6 or more reached +2 ATR before −2 ATR 58% of the time, against 47% for the rest, and made +0.10R per trade against −0.18R out of sample (after costs). That is a modest edge. A portfolio capped at a few open positions came out at about 0R, the edge sat mostly in smaller coins, and results were lumpy month to month.

Daily failed-retest shorts

On the 50 coins with the most trading volume over the last 30 days, a daily close below support arms a short. It triggers if, within 10 daily candles, price trades back to within 0.25 ATR of the broken level and closes below it again. A close back above the level first means support was reclaimed, and the setup is dropped.

Plan as studied: enter at the next daily open, stop 0.25 ATR above the retest high (or the level, if higher), target 2R, otherwise exit at the close of the 30th daily candle.

Track record in our study: +0.26R per trade out of sample (2024–2026) against +0.07R for random shorts on the same coins, and positive in 6 of 8 years. It is not statistically significant once we correct for the number of ideas we tested (Holm-adjusted p = 0.39), so treat it as a paper-trading candidate. Shorting 4H breakdowns failed out of sample and is not listed.